#NigeriaDecides2023 - Why is Nigeria’s Election important?/it’s ramification for the rest of Africa.

You may be asking yourself the above question and you’ll be forgiven for thinking - why will a country that has had over 13 leaders since independence have an election that is this contested? We will seek to give you the answers and how (if you are African) this election might impact you. First though, a brief look at the history.

History

The history of Nigerian politics is a long and complex one. It dates back to the days of British colonialism, when the country was divided into multiple provinces and territories. After independence in 1960, a series of military coups and authoritarian regimes engulfed the country until the late 1980s, when a new democratic system was established. Since then, Nigerian politics has been marked by a series of elections, both national and local, as well as a series of challenges and changes. Since independence in 1960, Nigeria has undergone a number of political changes. In 1978, the military government of General Olusegun Obasanjo handed power to a democratically elected government. This was followed by a return to military rule in 1983, and later, the return of democracy in 1999. Since then, a number of changes have taken place, including the introduction of a new constitution in 1999, the introduction of an independent national electoral commission, and the election of a new president in 2015. More recently, Nigeria has seen a shift towards a more decentralized form of government, as well as the further decentralization of power to the states in 2017.

Since independence in 1960, Nigeria has been ruled by various parties. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has been the largest party since the restoration of civilian rule in 1999 [1], establishing itself as the dominant party in Nigerian politics. This party has won all the national elections since 1999, and has held power for the majority of the last two decades. Nigerians are seeking a shift in political representation in order to increase their access to political power and resources. Nigeria has long been characterized by a system of patronage and nepotism, where political power and resources are concentrated in the hands of a few powerful individuals and groups. As a result, many Nigerians feel excluded from the political process and lack the representation they need to ensure their voices are heard and their interests are represented. A shift in political representation is seen as a way to ensure more equitable access to resources and power, and to create a more inclusive and representative democracy.

The Candidates

Here come the candidates, and their stakes in the process:

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (All-Progressives Congress), Peter Gregory Obi (Labour Party), and Atiku Abubakar (People’s Democratic Party). Bola Ahmed Tinubu's manifesto for 'renewing hope' in Nigeria includes policies such as tackling corruption, improving the business climate, and reforming the education system. Peter Gregory Obi's vision for policy and governance reforms in Nigeria includes policies such as diversifying the economy [2], improving healthcare, and reforming the nation's security forces. Atiku Abubakar’s policies include tackling corruption, diversifying the economy, improving healthcare and reforming the nation's security forces.

The Reality

The polls have however been favoring Peter Obi and his relatively newer party as many Nigerians are frustrated with the PDP; Nigerians have become increasingly distrustful of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) due to the party's history of corruption, mismanagement, and failure to deliver on its promises. Over the years, the PDP has come to be seen as a party of misrule, with rampant corruption and nepotism, lack of accountability, and a lack of transparency in its decisions and actions. This has led to a lack of trust in the PDP among Nigerians, and many view the party as a symbol of Nigeria's past failures. Nigerians have mixed views on the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu. On the one hand, Tinubu is seen as a strong leader and a capable administrator who has brought about positive changes in his home state of Lagos, and many of his supporters credit him with the state's successes. On the other hand, Tinubu is seen by some as a divisive leader, and there are concerns about his loyalty to the party and his commitment to the principles of democracy and accountability. Nigerians have generally positive views of Peter Obi and the Labour Party [3]. Obi is seen as a competent leader with a track record of success in his home state of Anambra, and he has been successful in mobilizing a large and enthusiastic base of supporters. The Labour Party is also seen as a credible alternative to the current ruling party, and many Nigerians view it as a party that is committed to reform and progressive policies. In general, Nigerians view Peter Obi and the Labour Party favorably and are hopeful that their policies and leadership can bring about positive change in Nigeria [4].

The Referee

INEC stands for the Independent National Electoral Commission and is the body responsible for overseeing elections in Nigeria [5][6]. It was established in 1998 to ensure that all elections are conducted in a free, fair and transparent manner, and that the outcome of elections is accepted by all stakeholders. INEC is responsible for conducting voter registration, producing and distributing electoral materials such as voter cards and ballot papers, setting up polling stations, and supervising and monitoring the polling process. It also has the power to annul elections that are found to be fraudulent or not conducted in accordance with the electoral laws. Generally, Nigerians view the work of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) positively [7][8], with many praising its efforts to ensure free, fair, and transparent elections. INEC has taken steps to prevent electoral fraud and abuse, such as introducing biometric voter verification and deploying smart card readers at polling stations. Additionally, INEC has made efforts to ensure that all citizens have access to the electoral process, such as providing free PVCs to eligible voters and increasing voter turnout by encouraging citizens to register to vote. Overall, the work of INEC has been widely praised and viewed as essential to ensuring free, fair, and transparent elections in Nigeria.

Why the paranoia?

Nigerians are becoming increasingly paranoid about the 2023 presidential election because of the current political climate. The country is facing a number of issues, including economic recession, rising insecurity, and an increasingly polarized political landscape. These issues have made many Nigerians worry that the 2023 election could be marred by fraudulent practices, violence, and other forms of manipulation, making it difficult to ensure a free and fair election. Additionally, there is a growing concern that the election could be rigged in favor of a particular candidate or party, undermining the democratic process and the will of the people. This has been amplified by social media and an ever increasing number of outsiders looking at the situation seeking new ways to make their own process better and like Nigeria’s.

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election is a critical moment in the country's history, as it will determine the future of the nation. The election will decide who will lead the country for the next four years, with the potential to shape the country's economic, social, and political trajectory. The election could also have a far-reaching impact on the rest of Africa, given Nigeria's position as the continent's largest economy and most populous nation. Other issues at stake include the implementation of key reforms, progress on tackling corruption and violence, and the continuation of efforts to combat poverty and inequality. Ultimately, the outcome of the election will have a major impact on the future of Nigeria and the African continent as a whole.

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election has seen a large amount of youth involvement. According to a survey by NOIPolls, over 40% of registered voters in the election are aged between 18 and 35. Young people have been actively campaigning for their preferred candidates, and social media has played a major role in the election. The election has also seen an increase in voter registration, with over 70 million Nigerians registered to vote. This is an encouraging sign of increased youth engagement in the democratic process, and a sign that the future of Nigerian democracy is in good hands.

So far so good, as the 2023 Nigerian presidential election has been largely peaceful so far [9], with no major incidents reported. There have been some reports of voting delays due to technical issues, but overall the voting process has been running smoothly. The voting period was extended by a day in some areas due to these delays, and the Independent National Electoral Commission has promised to ensure that the final results will be announced on time. In addition, the two main political parties have signed a pledge to accept the results of the election as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

Why does this election affect you?

The 2023 election in Nigeria has the potential to have a major impact on Africa as a whole. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, so the outcome of the election will have a ripple effect across the continent. The election could also have implications for the economic, social, and political stability of the region. Nigeria is an important economic powerhouse in Africa, and its political and economic decisions will have an effect on the rest of the continent. Furthermore, the election could influence the diplomatic relations between African countries and other regions of the world. Ultimately, the outcome of the Nigerian election will have far-reaching implications for Africa as a whole. These are the obvious and large scale ramifications of the election in Nigeria. Strategically though, this election will either make or mare the political landscape in sub-saharan Africa. The impact the elections will have on the youths of other countries once the results are out will be one of either frustration, taking the continent back into democratic obscurity or one in which people of different nations realize they can thrive and have more say in their democracies through activism and a strong reliance on individual and collective political emancipation.

Conclusion

For Nigerians, this is a turning point in their pursuit for ultimate democracy on the continent (especially in the sub-region); it is a fight to further haul themselves towards democratic perfection. It is an election that has the plight of youths in the country in the balance with their growth or death being on the ballot (especially with the vile happenings of 2022 fresh in the memory). For the rest of the continent though, it is a turning point in democracy as a whole; it either marks the beginning of a new dawn in the political sphere in these countries as they can now believe and work towards change, or the further realization that they can’t get out of the holes they’ve dug for themselves with nationals of different countries using it as a reference for further laxity with hands on head, a thread moving forward.

Democracy in Africa hangs in the balance as we await the results of this election in Nigeria.

ABNCameroon